stalled

It is almost certain now that Italy is victim of a very, very late identification of the first cases inside their borders. It's a fact that even after the lockdown of Lombardia many people arrived and left the area until authorities started noticing. This is just disastrous in a context where a highly contagious virus is roaming in the population. They are not exactly to be faulted because when the first case is identified, even if early on, who knows how many people came into contact with that person? Dozens? With an incubation of one to two weeks, many times without symptoms, we can't even imagine how difficult it is to stop the spread. What the numbers give us is something objective to hold on, to understand why it is so bad or where we are headed day after day if a nation manages to obtain a fixed minimum number of tests on the population. But that is what they reflect, of the tested people, how many were positive. Period. All countries are probably in the so-called "mitigation phase" much earlier than they expected, meaning, community transmission started much earlier and when this is the case no one knows where it started and how it's spreading because it popped up somewhere that wasn't even in the vicinity of the transmission chains known by that time. In my opinion it is not even relevant how high is the death rate, what matters is that be it 0.6% or 3%, at the end of the epidemic this will mean that many, many people will have perished, and many of those will not be old people with previous hart disease or diabetes, it will be healthy guys too, some in their 20's and 30's that somehow, either because the treatment they did home as advised by the health authorities, did not helped their bodies enough in fighting the causes of the symptoms, or because they did not follow the indications correctly or simply because they waited too long before heading to an hospital. Just as @MadManMike wisely said, not even China knows for sure, not even close, this week they handled north of 40.000 urns to deceased victims relatives's, the official government numbers were less than 5.000 so they either have no clue at all, were incapable of testing rapid enough, tested very few people or are plain and simple ignoring the truth in order to shield themselves from other countries wrath when they realize China failed to really contain the epidemic and still chose to downplay it. As someone said, there will be a world before this pandemic, and a world after the pandemic. Let's just see what that means really.

I have read that somewhere, yes, but I have not enough scientific knowledge of how a virus spreads and manages to remain in the community in order to tell you if that is what is going to happen. Coronaviruses existed for a very long time before they manage to make the jump into human organisms, they are wild viruses natural to... wild animals. As far as I know, neither the other coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, reappeared so far unless we really look at this one as what it really seems to considered, a new strain of the original SARS which outbroke in China back in 2002. MERS outbreaks were registered in 2015 and 2018. I would say that the recent history shows that it is most likely that these types of viruses are not seasonal, outbreaks occur, for all we know some may not even have been recognized as such, but there is no annual or any other pattern, it just seems to start the same way, a human organism gets into contact with an infected animal.

Top notch. Loved the fact that you were not using a "weird bike" and still managed to pull some fresh moves out of nothing. Very inspirational.

I am no virologist but the influenzaviruses are not of the same family as coronaviruses, they do have the same RNA ancestry because both families have genetic material on their composition though. Wikipedia rules. Regarding immunity, as you guys said, its always temporary, no one stays permanently immune due to natural mutations that also originate different strains, that is the reason why the seasonal flu is a billion dollar market for the labs that release and sell the vaccine every so often, it's a never ending cycle I am afraid. Also, as @MadManMike stated, it is no probable that next year we get an exponential effect like this year but unfortunately we are still a very long time away from that and right now China is already bracing for a new wave and that can happen to any country with huge population numbers and/or territory, a new focus of infection can break again somewhere else.

Yeah over the las few days I have done some research to get to know the specificities of these bikes, Street Trials versions at least and I am in the process of purchasing a sub-€300 24" dirt bike that will give me a similar geometry to a specific Trials frame and 90% of the components required to have a working bicycle. The only upgrades I will be doing right after I get it are some wider and taller bars and longer stem, spec-wise very similar to what I see in some Trials parts site so hopefully I will end up with a reasonably "modern" street trials setup. My moto will be the same as yours, ride it, see how much I progress and then, if the frame holds up well, In the long term, I may consider getting a fully steet trial oriented ride, until then I just can't justify +€1000 for a bike that will always be too limited ti how you can use it.

Unfortunately, what epidemiologists have been warning about is that this is no flu, a lot closer to pneumonia, but a severe case of it, what doctors call bilateral interstitial pneumonia. In the beginning, when it was "only" in China, the media themselves and even national health authorities disseminated the idea that this is just some kind of variation of the seasonal flu virus, the influenza. Not exactly. Even if some of the symptoms look similar, many patients will reach the shortness of breath stage and when that happens you need assisted ventilation. Multiply hundreds of cases like these in few days, most of them in need for several days if not weeks and no health care system has the capability to offer the treatment to everyone. If everything goes according to the best estimates, lots and lots of people will die and the effect will be more pronounced in countries that delayed the contention measures. I am very afraid for the USA, Brasil and even the UK right now. Massive population, late to very late measures, it will be bad. It will escalate very rapidly in the next few weeks and it will be shocking to see hundreds of people dying every day...

Lack of community immunity and of a specific vaccine all together make quarantine the last and basically the only resort to fight the spreading of the disease and thinking that you can just continue to get out as before and just by "being careful" you'll end up ok is just the start of the problem. For starts "to be careful" can mean a lot of different things to different people, maybe you believe that to stay away from nearby passing people is enough, some people will not avoid public transportation for example, its convenient and its what they are accustomed to. Stay home, stay home and... stay home. It's hard, on everyone, but if you are not infected and want to remain that way for your sake and the sake of others, that is the best approach. The right analogy is to think of this situation as a wild fire (the virus) on a remote forest zone (cities, villages, etc.), fireman (the medical staff) can't put out the fire fast enough for it too stop burning nearby trees but one thing they can do is to strategically cut down trees (in this case, us, citizens, we are not killed as the trees but we are removed from the forest) forming a physical barrier that devoid the fire of additional material to consume. Failing to prevent the fire from spreading will mean a lot of forest life will be lost because when the fire starts slowing down a lot of damage will have been done. The alternate, simpler, analogy is to think of the virus a spring and the measures as a whole (the closing of schools, the social isolation, etc.) as your hand compressing down the spring. If the measures are applied in a successfull way, if your hand pushes down with enough force, the spring will remain compressed and "small", if you alleviate the pressure of your hand by reducing the effectiveness of the measures, the spring will be stronger and will push your hand up enabling the virus to spread and infect more and more people. Italy is feeling the pain, Spain is feeling the pain and before its over more countries, if not careful enough and courageous enough to implement strict, strong measures, will feel the pain. I just hope that in the case of the UK and the USA the politicians have not waited too long.

I hate to come by as a pessimistic but things are not looking great for the UK. If Italy was not example enough of the devastating effects a rapidly spreading virus (mainly due to lack of community immunity) can cause, look at Spain, upwards of 500 deaths in the last 24h, if that is not evidence enough of what happens when you delay the response measures, I don't know what is. Italy is now suspected to be a victim of a very late finding of the first cases that may have occurred as far back as December and that means the first few infected people roamed freely around the country fr a couple of months, many without obvious symptoms, many only light ones that caused no hurry, and since the attack rate (how many people does an infected person successfully transmits the disease to) of the virus can be as high as 5 individuals, it is utterly overwhelming. Here in Portugal we are hoping for the best but already expecting the worst and despite the recent declaration of the state of emergency we still see irresponsible acts from people who go on public walks in areas where typically people give preference too on a daily basis, originating small crowds that are now forbidden. A disgrace for them and the rest of us that choose to avoid leaving home at all costs. As far as I know the UK government was following one of the possible strategies in these situations, hoping that a cured person would become immune... all nice and dandy but so far there is no evidence that an infected person can't be infected once more and that strategy alone is a very bad idea since it takes at least 60% of the population to be immune in order to effectively slow down the virus spread and give time for the health care services to cope with the critically hill in need of assisted air ventilation. Time will tell if the UK politicians made very, very bad decisions, when they basically devalued the impact and seriousness of a virus that has the potential to bring a nation to its knees not because of the high mortality rate (which is actually pretty low if the spread is contained) but because of how easily it spreads and fatigues the health care response. Lets not mention the USA, some experts predict that about 150.000.000 may get infected and given the current average mortality rate in Europe that may resolve to about 5.000.000 dead people... a disgrace. Regarding the closing of public places... unfortunately all evidence show that in Europe dantesque measures have to be taken and a day too late means hundreds if not thousands of deaths become a reality due the geometric progression of exponential proportions that epidemiologists all over the globe have been warning about. Closing a private business is not to be taken lightly, most have no money on the side because mostly are probably not that profitable and that will be the next big challenge once the infection is contained. Speaking of which, we will now see how the UK will cope with the devastated economy, especially after the Brexit.

Just thought I would introduce myself to you guys (no punt intended!)! I couldn't find a sub-forum for that but please feel free to move this topic if there is a more appropriate location. I am a 30ish year old from Portugal, been rinding BMX in and out since about when I was 18yrs old, Flatland to be more precise. For those who don't know the discipline, it's the least popular, way behind Street or Park, it's also the most technical and probably the more challenging of them all. Most people still call it just "freestyle" which is very imprecise. I rode and learned some tricks during my college years but over the last 10 years I've just been doing it now and then for nostalgia sakes, time is at a premium either because of work restrictions or family ones and sports and hobbies end up being thrown down the priority ladder. A mistake, I know. Nevertheless I do not want to stop practicing some sort of radical sport and I've never really let Flatland of the menu and have always enjoyed Trials and that is what brought me here and now. So these I believe are my options: Tight-budget I actually own an MTB too, a Scott Voltage YZ4 from the 2000's, bought used a couple of years ago and ridden very little since then, half a dozen times maybe, it was meant to be a commuter to ride alongside a friend or my wife and I now understand that what seems to be a Dirt oriented geometry was probably a poor choice, here it is: The suspension is busted, I have to buy another one, I don't believe it is even serviceable, this was a ~$300 bike when new I believe, the stock suspension fork is probably a very entry level product. On on hand the geometry of the frame does not feel that far off from a modern street Trials bike and with some mods could it be done? I am not aware of the used market prices for disk brake setups for example, mods may get expensive pretty quickly. The drivetrain I believe could be re-arranged to be a more reliable single speed one. Budget I love the used market opportunities, unfortunately people seem to swap parts too often and most times that barely get to the explore the limits of their durability and functionality so good deals can be made especially on a budget. Unfortunately where I live, Portugal, Trials is almost a non-existent activity, I only ever recall seeing someone doing once so you get the picture but I must admit, I have never met another flatlander personally. This means I would probably need to convince someone from a foreign country (like the UK!) to ship it while paying for high shipping too. I know that building a bike from zero usually costs big bucks, even using used parts has to be done properly in order to avoid getting too close to a new bike price. I would basically need... everything? A frame, rims, stem, fork, seat, cranks... this can get expensive very quick. New complete bike I could consider the purchase of a 24", maybe 26", I'm 5'9 so not especially tall but I am most concerned with the geometry of the bike. I hate the look of the 20" options, they are too Trials specific and to my eyes, very, very ugly and I already have my BMX so... I am also aware that a Trials bike will never be a perfect commuter but as I have researched the "street Trials" bikes look more ordinary, even with the crazy frame geometry with very steep top tubes. Downsinde? Are there even entry-level, sub £500 options? All I see are bikes that cost upwards of £500, very far from the sub £200, 20inchers I find locally. With this in mind I would like to try it without shelling out a huge some of money. My main concerns are obviously the lack of time and lack of enjoyment, the first I can deal it, the second is a bit harder because if I try to sell the bike locally, it will not be easy. Any thoughts? Cheers