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Davetrials

Covid19

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I think it's correct to say the vaccine does 'work' in terms of reduced transmission - the reading I've done from sources I trust seem to all come up with this conclusion. By improving immune response this will reduce significance of symptoms, eg. less coughing, so less transmission. However...

As Anal alluded to, I believe there are still a significant number of vaccinated people who are 'worse' spreaders than many unvaccinated citizens though, whether that's their lifestyle choices, state of health or their feeling of invincibility due to having been jabbed.

In this case, I don't think it's fair or reasonable to impose isolation on a group of people simply because they have not been 'fully vaccinated' or don't show 'signs of increased immune response'. Availability of immune response is a moot point if you don't need to use said response. It's like saying we all need to go around wearing a full face helmet in case we walk into a lamp-post.

Examples... Person A got Covid last year and nearly died, but now is double vaccinated, has a BMI of 35, aged 55, lives with partner and 3 kids all of whom are at high school, works in an office with 100 people, shares a desk with 3 others, goes out for a meal twice a week then to the pub after with at least 4 mates, takes the tube to work, nips to Subway every lunchtime for food. Even with '73% reduced risk of transmission' and '60% reduced risk of hospitalisation' (or whatever the latest version of the stats says.........) I would place good money on Person A having an increased risk of transmission and hospitalisation over unjabbed Person B who is 28 years old, lives alone, has never had Covid, works in an office with only 2 other people, never goes to the pub, goes out for a meal once a month with their partner, rides a bike 3 times a week on the moors, has a BMI of 23, commutes by bike or car and does their food shopping online.

 

I know there are too many variables to calculate a 'risk factor' per person, but to me it should be innocent until proven guilty rather than the other way round.

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I listened to a radio call-in yesterday discussing the Austria restrictions. A woman called in saying she totally agrees with it and would like to see it in the UK. The reason being that her 16 year old got Covid and the jab wasn’t available. 
 

I was sat there wondering if her health was good, did she get out much, was she overweight etc. She then dropped that her daughter “shouldn't have got Covid because she’s a gamer and never goes out” (but then said she had recently got a job working retail).

 

Blaming her bad Covid purely on the fact she wasn’t vaccinated seems to be a view shared by many when we should be talking about her vitamin D levels and general health. If she’s a gamer that never goes out then that suggests her health isn’t the best. If people want the vaccine that’s fine but I can’t believe we’re all ignoring other factors that are extremely important.

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36 minutes ago, Ali C said:

Out of interest, how severe were their symptoms? Did they all get I’ll after the vaccines were available or did some catch it before?

All caught in the last 2-3 months, one sister in law was pretty bad with it on her chest and struggles to do too much a month later as she gets out of breath (37,would say relatively healthy but doesn't do a significant amount of exercise), other sister in law had no symptoms but tested positive when the family she childminds for all got it (early 20's, healthy and quite fit as she does a lot of walking and working on the farm). Other 3 are all my kids age 13, 11 and 7. Eldest had a really stiff neck which we thought was down to an injury he got trampolining at school but tested positive after it still hurt a week later and still got no taste or smell. Other two started with headaches this weekend just gone and migraine symptoms, elder got cough as well and younger got sore throat but generally don't feel too bad. 

I think the type of vaccine has an effect also as most of the people I know who have had it whilst vaccinated and been bad have had Astra Zenica whereas we've all had Pfizer. 

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2 hours ago, Adam@TartyBikes said:

I think it's correct to say the vaccine does 'work' in terms of reduced transmission - the reading I've done from sources I trust seem to all come up with this conclusion. By improving immune response this will reduce significance of symptoms, eg. less coughing, so less transmission. However...

As Anal alluded to, I believe there are still a significant number of vaccinated people who are 'worse' spreaders than many unvaccinated citizens though, whether that's their lifestyle choices, state of health or their feeling of invincibility due to having been jabbed.

In this case, I don't think it's fair or reasonable to impose isolation on a group of people simply because they have not been 'fully vaccinated' or don't show 'signs of increased immune response'. Availability of immune response is a moot point if you don't need to use said response. It's like saying we all need to go around wearing a full face helmet in case we walk into a lamp-post.

Examples... Person A got Covid last year and nearly died, but now is double vaccinated, has a BMI of 35, aged 55, lives with partner and 3 kids all of whom are at high school, works in an office with 100 people, shares a desk with 3 others, goes out for a meal twice a week then to the pub after with at least 4 mates, takes the tube to work, nips to Subway every lunchtime for food. Even with '73% reduced risk of transmission' and '60% reduced risk of hospitalisation' (or whatever the latest version of the stats says.........) I would place good money on Person A having an increased risk of transmission and hospitalisation over unjabbed Person B who is 28 years old, lives alone, has never had Covid, works in an office with only 2 other people, never goes to the pub, goes out for a meal once a month with their partner, rides a bike 3 times a week on the moors, has a BMI of 23, commutes by bike or car and does their food shopping online.

 

I know there are too many variables to calculate a 'risk factor' per person, but to me it should be innocent until proven guilty rather than the other way round.

It’s true there probably would be many other better ways and better groups to single out, but this would just be a really easy group to split out that would be (sort of) fair in that people could choose to, or not to. If it were BMI people couldn’t necessarily choose to get a better bmi very quickly! It would also be a group that would undoubtedly work from a statistical point of view.
I’m not suggesting in any way that unvaxed people should be punished/shamed/locked up etc, I just don’t disagree with it as a solution to a problem. 
 

1 hour ago, Ali C said:

A woman called in saying she totally agrees with it and would like to see it in the UK.

I wouldn’t want this, I would only be ok with this if it got to the point we needed another lockdown.

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4 hours ago, Ali C said:

 But the percentages keep on changing, first it was “this vaccine has a 95% efficacy rate” then it dropped to 85%, then 70%, 60% etc. like I keep on saying, it’s too soon to come out with definitive results. I’m not denying it probably does have some short term help but when I weigh up the risks, effects and alternatives I just don’t see the vaccine as this “wonder drug” that the government and media have relentlessly rammed down our throats. 

That's simply because the effects of the vaccine wears off over time, hence why we're talking about boosters now. But you're playing it out as if it invalidates the thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of studies out there that shows all the covid vaccines have clear and a concise benefit when it comes to preventing symptoms, preventing hospitalizations and preventing deaths.

I don't agree that people who haven't been vaccinated should be forced into a lockdown where those who have are not too, but that doesn't mean I literally ignore demonstrable facts and repeat misinformation to fight against it.

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Out of curiosity because I don't know, how does the vaccine lose efficiency?  I was of the understanding that it prepped your immune system by giving it building blocks to fight the virus or do these building blocks degrade over time?  Now that I've had covid and have built antibodies do those antibodies also degrade over time, I may well be wrong but I don't think that's how it works is it?  Obviously if the virus mutates into a new strain then I may be susceptible to it and catch it again.

If I catch covid again now will I even know?

edit: done a little reading, it's like the cold virus in that the body does not produce permanent antibodies as it generally does for chickenpox.  As such you can still reinfect with the virus but your body may have some residual antibodies.

Edited by forteh

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Yeah I got shingles at the end of last year. And I'm told I'll probably get it again and again throughout my life, because sometimes the body has permanent immunity, sometimes it's temporary, depends on the virus I suppose.

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"Highest vaccinated countries in Europe seeing Covid-19 surge"

That's a quote from the WHO. I've not agreed with them with a lot of decisions they've made but it's interesting to see them say this. They do also say they think people should take the vaccine and that it can help reduce the severity so it's a bit of a mixed message. Again, I'm not saying the vaccine doesn't do anything but like has been mentioned, perhaps the surge in cases is from vaccinated people thinking they're 100% safe now and going out into situations that are going to spread it more than those who aren't vaxxed and keeping a lower profile...if that's the case do people need more education? Do we still need restrictions for everyone vaccinated or not? Maybe it's due to people not wearing face masks as much?

We should also bear in mind that corona viruses are seasonal so maybe the surge is just part of that?


That's providing the vaccine is actually doing something and it's not just the virus itself becoming less severe like I mentioned a few posts ago?

There's a LOT of variables.

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What we saying for a Christmas lock down, yey or ney?

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I think some kind of lockdown similar to Austria but maybe with the option for people to present a negative test as an alternative to the vaccine (like Scotland is doing with the vaccine passport)

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12 hours ago, Davetrials said:

What we saying for a Christmas lock down, yey or ney?

Lockdown so I don't have to go see anyone, can just stay home and get merry :cheers:

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19 hours ago, Ali C said:

"Highest vaccinated countries in Europe seeing Covid-19 surge"

As far as I can tell - the countries with highest vax rates have eased restrictions the most. Couple this with the temperature dropping its fairly expected ? I read an interesting article about the effects of reducing measures at the end of vax periods, leading to resistant strains etc. Best advice was to keep some restrictions for some time.

Situation in Austria seems slightly different now? Vaccine is mandatory and the lockdown is everyone ? This I do not agree with, the worst of both worlds. 

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I just read in the news about Austria now making it mandatory. Wow, super ethical.

How long until that idea spreads?

 

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On 16/11/2021 at 0:49 PM, Ali C said:

This is a slippery slope

 

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I wish "Like" was actually "Agree", because I don't really like it...

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On 11/18/2021 at 0:42 PM, Ali C said:

"Highest vaccinated countries in Europe seeing Covid-19 surge"

That's a quote from the WHO. I've not agreed with them with a lot of decisions they've made but it's interesting to see them say this. They do also say they think people should take the vaccine and that it can help reduce the severity so it's a bit of a mixed message. Again, I'm not saying the vaccine doesn't do anything but like has been mentioned, perhaps the surge in cases is from vaccinated people thinking they're 100% safe now and going out into situations that are going to spread it more than those who aren't vaxxed and keeping a lower profile...if that's the case do people need more education? Do we still need restrictions for everyone vaccinated or not? Maybe it's due to people not wearing face masks as much?

We should also bear in mind that corona viruses are seasonal so maybe the surge is just part of that?


That's providing the vaccine is actually doing something and it's not just the virus itself becoming less severe like I mentioned a few posts ago?

There's a LOT of variables.

It simply appears that the vaccine isn't that great at stopping transmission. We've been talking for months in here about how people can still get covid and spread it even when they're vaccinated. It looks like we finally have answer that even with everyone vaccinated we still have to take precautions as if we weren't. But I agree with you, lots of variables. We don't really know if high case rates and low deaths are thanks to vaccinations, a different strain, or a combination of both. The good news is that deaths are down which is really the only thing that matters.

I honestly didn't realize that it was getting out of hand again in Europe and Australia until I just checked the numbers. The US has seemed to have avoided the worse of the delta spike (or maybe the original spike was massive for the US and it just doesn't look as bad relatively speaking).

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On 19/11/2021 at 10:04 AM, Cap said:

Lockdown so I don't have to go see anyone, can just stay home and get merry :cheers:

This, must admit I absolutely loved original lockdown (though the weather played a big part in that :lol:

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Riding the road bike was epic in lockdown1

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Mrs was feeling rough last week but tested negative all the way until Saturday- negative test in the morning then positive at lunchtime. The boys and I are still testing negative (all had a PCR as well as her (in different cars) on Saturday) and I'm keeping clear of work for this week to minimise the chance of spreading anything (even though legallay I could go in). One of my workmates 67 year old mum had a bad BMX accident (!) the other day and has been in hospital and another is about to head back to Brazil to visit his family for the first time in over two years so I feel like it's not worth risking it for a few days at least. Mel seems to be over the worst and we're just being sensible, staying away from each other in essence!

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Glad she's getting better. Interesting how long its taking to show a positive test. Hope you and the boyos stay clear! It is a bit mad that you can go about your business now in a household with positive tests!

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Our MD has said that anyone in contact with covid has to go home until all clear.

Ours came back from scout camp, clear on the Friday before and Monday after, positive by Tuesday.  Youngest went down with fever for 48 hours from Tuesday, second youngest and wife tested positive Thursday.  I tested positve on the following Monday.  Bear in mind we made no attempt to keep it to ourselves within the house but also didn't leave the house.  The eldest went to stop with her dad on the Thursday onwards of half term, she was testing daily and never came up positive but it did mean that the wasn't going to mess up her mocks by having to isolate.

So I was in close proximity to positive cases and still took almost a week to display aany symptoms or positive test myself.

Keep safe, it wasn't too bad for us all things being told.

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Two people out at work now with covid. Fortunately no one I share a shift with.

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A "new strain" has magically appeared just before Christmas, which happens to be "far easier to transmit". It's OK though, "Pharmaceutical companies say they can tweak the vaccine for effectiveness against the new strain".

We can all have our 14th booster in January, that's something to look forward to. If it carries on like this, we'll all be micro-dosing the stuff before we enter shops.

And a bit of tin foil for you: Omicron is an anagram of both Moronic and Oncomir. Not suggesting there's any links, but it's an odd name choice nonetheless :)

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10 hours ago, MadManMike said:

A "new strain" has magically appeared just before Christmas, which happens to be "far easier to transmit". It's OK though, "Pharmaceutical companies say they can tweak the vaccine for effectiveness against the new strain".

We can all have our 14th booster in January, that's something to look forward to. If it carries on like this, we'll all be micro-dosing the stuff before we enter shops.

And a bit of tin foil for you: Omicron is an anagram of both Moronic and Oncomir. Not suggesting there's any links, but it's an odd name choice nonetheless :)

Apparently each strain is named after the Greek alphabet, I missed a few of them so  it wasn’t exactly obvious but it seems  we’re up to the 15th named strain

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