Covid19

[Davetrials]

5 hours ago, MadManMike said:

Agreed, the £60 fine halved within 14 days is less than a parking ticket. For a nice day out, £30 is a bargain, right?

I can't see it deterring many people, certainly not the type of people that are willing to do a 100-mile round trip.

Im willing to take a £60 found on the chin for some of a that sweet sweet outdoor life

[NINJА]

Folks, don't you think, that consequences of this worldwide lock-down would be much worse than the worst scenario with covid19?

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

3 minutes ago, NINJА said:

Folks, don't you think, that consequences of this worldwide lock-down would be much worse than the worst scenario with covid19?

In what way? Financially?

[JT!]

2 hours ago, NINJА said:

Folks, don't you think, that consequences of this worldwide lock-down would be much worse than the worst scenario with covid19?

No. I'd rather not see our grandparents on hospital beds in hallways sharing a ventilator with 5 other people while you have one nurse who's working on 3 hours of sleep checking in on them every 2 hours because she has to watch over 40 patients at once.

[Little Yoshi]

2 hours ago, NINJА said:

Folks, don't you think, that consequences of this worldwide lock-down would be much worse than the worst scenario with covid19?

Health over wealth. 

[MadManMike]

A widespread lack of wealth has a direct impact on health though, does it not?

I'm not talking about people having to sell their Ferrari either.

I see what NINJA is saying and yes, I think the aftermath will have a huge effect on the world.

[JT!]

I don't know if it'll be that bad. We aren't in a recession, we're in the middle of a natural disaster. The economy was doing great before this shit, it'll be fine after. I don't think it'll be anything compared to the crash of 2008.

[MadManMike]

Nobody is focusing on the financial side at the moment though, it's all about death toll.

Lots of my friends have lost their jobs, tons of businesses will be going bust, they're just not making the headlines... I hope that once we get the green light, businesses can just re-open and go again, but I have a feeling a lot won't be able to.

I hope I'm wrong.

[dann2707]

1 hour ago, JT! said:

I don't know if it'll be that bad. We aren't in a recession, we're in the middle of a natural disaster. The economy was doing great before this shit, it'll be fine after. I don't think it'll be anything compared to the crash of 2008.

With all due respect this is the biggest load of crap I've read so far about the COVID-19 pandemic! 

Why will the economy be fine after do you reckon? Would love to hear your reasonings behind that statement. 

A few friends have already lost their jobs and I might be being made redundant too after all of this. 

[Luke Rainbird]

It's an entirely different beast to 2008 though. That was a recession compounded by a complete mess* of a financial system, whereas we were already significantly overdue another recession (economic cyclical) and this will/has brought it forward a little and will likely make it significantly deeper too. The economy is doing well before any recession, that's how the cycle works. It's like saying you will be awake tonight because you were awake this morning.

Lockdown means people aren't all working so much as they had been, and in many cases aren't spending how they would have been either. That clearly has an impact. The fact that it's happening on a global scale, particularly in some of the world's largest manufacturing regions, will clearly knock things on.
Will we recover to the point we saw before this all kicked off, and new highs afterwards? Almost certainly, it's just a matter of how long and what the impact is until that point.
Is that the main priority at the minute? No, rightly not. However, it is a significant concern and can't be ignored.

*I'm not saying the current financial system isn't a mess here, it's just not the point

[JT!]

2 hours ago, dann2707 said:

Would love to hear your reasonings behind that statement.

100% armchair opinion.

But I've seen a lot of talk about comparing this to other natural disasters and how the economy bounced back pretty quickly, obviously all those comparisons were smaller scale disasters as opposed to a worldwide thing though. I don't know what's going on in England, but people are actually making more money on unemployment here than if they were working. Obviously that money has to come from somewhere, but it should see us through the next couple of months without too many people struggling financially.

I don't think we'll feel the economic effects of this outside of 2020. But I could just be talking out of my arse too.

[manuel]

I can’t see the financial impact lasting any less than a whole decade.

[Luke Rainbird]

 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, JT! said:

I could just be talking out of my arse

I think I'd go with this.

[Rusevelt]

You gotta be kidding!

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=w00A_1586648352

[MadManMike]

11 hours ago, JT! said:

100% armchair opinion.

But I've seen a lot of talk about comparing this to other natural disasters and how the economy bounced back pretty quickly, obviously all those comparisons were smaller scale disasters as opposed to a worldwide thing though. I don't know what's going on in England, but people are actually making more money on unemployment here than if they were working. Obviously that money has to come from somewhere, but it should see us through the next couple of months without too many people struggling financially.

I don't think we'll feel the economic effects of this outside of 2020. But I could just be talking out of my arse too.

I really hope you're right, but assuming we get let out of the cage fully in July or August, I can't see things magically repairing in 4 months...

Most financial experty types are suggesting a decade and again I hope they're wrong.

Guess we've got to just ride the wave and see what happens.

[NINJА]

I'll just leave it here.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

And this for those who cannot read:

 

[Topsy]

Known here as the page of one sided facts/opinions.

 

There's so many points being ignored and graphs being misinterpreted on that page, at least as of last week when I stumbled upon it.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Topsy

[JT!]

On 4/12/2020 at 8:51 PM, MadManMike said:

I really hope you're right, but assuming we get let out of the cage fully in July or August, I can't see things magically repairing in 4 months...

Most financial experty types are suggesting a decade and again I hope they're wrong.

Guess we've got to just ride the wave and see what happens.

I see a lot of money out here being pumped into people's pockets in an attempt to hold off any kind of recession. Given most of the places closed down will reopen and suddenly everyone is going to have a crap load of extra money that'll be a huge kick start to the economy. And all my opinions are based around everyone going back to work at the start of May which probably wont happen at this point.

[NINJА]

17 hours ago, Topsy said:

Known here as the page of one sided facts/opinions.

 

There's so many points being ignored and graphs being misinterpreted on that page, at least as of last week when I stumbled upon it.

Every statement based on source/proof, even on official sources like EURO MOMO/official statistics of countries.

There are not a single proof that this "plague" affects normal mortality rates.

But what affects is:

1) Lack of care for single elderly people (affects mortality)

2) Lack of care for patients with other diseases (affects mortality)

3) F..ed up economy (affects mortality)

4) Skyrocketed rate of suicides/domestic violence/exacerbation of mental illnesses (affects mortality)

5) Rising crime rates (affects mortality)

6) People lost their rights and imprisoned in their homes

 

And for what all that?

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by NINJА

[Mark W]

On 13/04/2020 at 8:46 AM, NINJА said:

I'll just leave it here.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

"Countries without lockdowns and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. This might call into question the effectiveness of such far-reaching measures."

Sweden: "Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as deaths rise. Country, which has taken soft approach, has death rate higher than Nordic neighbours’"

Japan: "Japan to declare emergency as Tokyo cases soar"

South Korea had a low rate because they acted early, tested a lot, and were very aggressive in isolating those who the virus and those who they'd been in contact with.  Without being early like that, you're f**ked as it will have already spread.  See also: Singapore.  You can't really implement that kind of protocol once you've already got mass spread of it, and for most Western countries they haven't taken that opportunity.  Just look at the test per capita in the US compared to South Korea - it isn't a coincidence that one is at one end of the spectrum and one is at the other when it comes to infections and deaths.

The funny thing with people saying that lockdown measures were excessive because death rates and infections are so low is that that's the whole point of the lockdown measures.  It's like saying that because there were fewer fatalities in car accidents after mandatory seat belt usage was introduced that seat belts were excessive.  That's kind of the point.  

[Topsy]

3 hours ago, NINJА said:

 

I'm not going to read the site again - but if I remember right it, for instance, compares numbers from one country and compares with those, something that really can't be done in the current situation since every country is reacting differently.

Quote

"There's no "single proof that this "plague" affects mortality rates"

Seems like proof that the measures are actually working. I don't think there's really a country in Europe that is sitting back and not doing anything at all, from which you could compare data with.

I know that 90% of people that died the ward my friend ward oversees would not have passed this year, bar for freak accidents. These however probably are occurring less now since people ought to be staying home, so lack of freak accidents (I have no data on this- this is me thinking aloud) may be compensated by virus deaths. Also 10% passing due to the virus appear to have had no previous illness, regardless of age. (govt press conference late last week)

Now if you were not take any measures you'd just get more people suffocating at home and of top of that more people actually catching the virus. Simples. I don't feel like that would be very ethical. If you take them to get treatment their chances of recovery rise. They probably wouldn't have had these chances at home which would result in more deaths. But yeah, statistics may say that the mortality rate is still the same, by comparing apples and oranges (horrible analogy - I do enjoy both of these fruits )

If you want to go too much into detail on mortality rates you can just as well not look at them at all since inevitably everyone dies, and if it doesn't matter how or when there's no need for any kind of statistics on it at all.

 

All my info is country specific since there's no use (to me) to look at any info/news from other countries since all are handling the situation differently so I can't really address your points very well. I also feel like there's absolutely no use in comparing countries right now since everyone is taking different measures, all have different degrees of f**ked up governments, all inhabitants have different mentalities that react to stuff differently.

 

Quote

1) Lack of care for single elderly people (affects mortality)

afaik that doesn't look too bleak over here currently. I mean, in the UK you seem to have lovely retirement homes, here you go into one to vegetate so I can't comment on this fairly.

Quote

2) Lack of care for patients with other diseases (affects mortality)

This would be way worse with no measures but okay? (also luckily not an issue here)

Quote

3) F..ed up economy (affects mortality)

Time will tell on this one. Again very country specific..

Quote

4) Skyrocketed rate of suicides/domestic violence/exacerbation of mental illnesses (affects mortality)

Can't comment on this one either, but these suicides surely would show up in the mortality rate graph above?..

Quote

5) Rising crime rates (affects mortality)

Probably in neighbourhoods where you've got bigger chances of getting shot than catching a virus?

Quote

6) People lost their rights and imprisoned in their homes

No one in being "imprisoned" in countries that haven't lost control. Funnily enough these seem to have questionable governments to start with.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Topsy

[JT!]

6 hours ago, NINJА said:

There are not a single proof that this "plague" affects normal mortality rates.

I'm not sure what you mean by that... Are you saying just as many people will die this year as last year?

The video was pretty interesting, I guess if we did nothing but lockdown the old / vulnerable people, it would rip through the entire population pretty quickly and could have been gone by now. I suppose the only real way of knowing if that that would have worked is after it's all said and done we would look at all the hospitalized cases and see if all of those could have been handled over a few weeks. Everyone running countries thinks that they could not have.

When you're playing with peoples lives it's probably just best to air on the side of caution.

[NINJА]

 

[JT!]

I don't need to watch a 13min long video to tell me that American news sensationalizes everything. Probably not a good idea to get your news from sources that reply on advertisement as their only income.

But all I see is over prepared and under utilized. Which given this is a novel virus is exactly where we should be.

[NINJА]

Do you have any proofs that virus is really so dangerous?