biketrialler Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 (edited) Oh ok then, that was easy, I was thinking everyone was saying it was 1/3 chance still :P How the f**k did any professors get confused by that then (Y) Edited June 23, 2005 by biketrialler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoyoyo Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think you've misunderstood! Right i think i've just got it. [] < door 1, your 1st choice. Could be a car if you picked this at first (1/3) [] < door 2, been opened up to reveil a goat. [] < door 3, if you picked a goat (2/3) this is a car as the host wouldnt open up the car door. Understand it now! cheers guys ← This one makes it clear for me from the last thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 This one makes it clear for me from the last thread ← But it doesn't work. (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakley Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 look there is a bigger chance of picking a goat on you first guess! 2/3 to 1/3! so you when the goat is revealed, you should swap because when you had three choice you probably chose a goat because 2 out of the three doors had goats behind them! but the rule is not always correct, just because you are more likely to get a goat on your first pick, doesnt always mean you will!! a bigger chance doesnt mean a certanty! joE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biketrialler Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 This one makes it clear for me from the last thread ← The fault in this is that it makes the assumption that you definitely DO have the car. When you might not! It could be in the one that isnt yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yer which is what I said, but JT! said I was wrong. So it can't be that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoyoyo Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 im giving up on this one cos it is getting too confusing,everytime i think bout it i change my mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yer which is what I said, but JT! said I was wrong. So it can't be that. ← You ARE f**king wrong. It all relies on the fact that YOU HAVE ALREADY CHOSEN A DOOR. Once you are on that "path", you cannot just jump off it. The reason the thing is so confusing is that CHANCES ARE YOU WILL HAVE PICKED THE WRONG DOOR TO START WITH. Don't argue until you've spent at least 10 minutes thinking about it (With an open mind!). If you STILL don't get it, draw a tree diagram. Read the other thread though, it's all explained there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 You ARE f**king wrong. It all relies on the fact that YOU HAVE ALREADY CHOSEN A DOOR. Once you are on that "path", you cannot just jump off it. The reason the thing is so confusing is that CHANCES ARE YOU WILL HAVE PICKED THE WRONG DOOR TO START WITH. Don't argue until you've spent at least 10 minutes thinking about it (With an open mind!). If you STILL don't get it, draw a tree diagram. Read the other thread though, it's all explained there. ← I said this. 1/3 Chance to begin with. Low odds. 1/2 After a goat has been revealed. Better odds so change when you have the better odds. If that's wrong well shag me sideways I don't care :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yes, that's wrong. And you didn't leave it 10minutes did you? And did you draw a tree diagram? Seriously, it's meant to be a confusing puzzle, which goes against common sense. If it was the obvious "no, it makes no difference whether he swaps" answer, why would anyone post it? Read the thread mink linked :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 (edited) I said this. 1/3 Chance to begin with. Low odds. 1/2 After a goat has been revealed. Better odds so change when you have the better odds. If that's wrong well shag me sideways I don't care :P ← Yeah, that is wrong becuase if the odds are 1/2, why would it be better to chage when the odds are the same. :) Edited June 23, 2005 by JT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yeah, that is wrong becuase if the odds are 1/2, why would it be better to chage when the odds are the same. :) ← ONE THIRD, is worse odds than ONE HALF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 ONE THIRD, is worse odds than ONE HALF. ← You've lost me now. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 You've lost me now. :) ← Ok if you put a bet on and your odds are 1/3 you get a third of your money back if you win, so £33 gets you £11 back BUT if it's 1/2 odds you get a half back which is £17.50 making them better odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Ok if you put a bet on and your odds are 1/3 you get a third of your money back if you win, so £33 gets you £11 back BUT if it's 1/2 odds you get a half back which is £17.50 making them better odds. ← I understand that, but you said... 1/3 Chance to begin with. Low odds. 1/2 After a goat has been revealed. Better odds so change when you have the better odds. If that's wrong well shag me sideways I don't care :) ← After the first goat has been removed, the odds are not 1/2 (50:50) for the reason said above. But even if they were, why would you change your mind if the odds are equal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 I understand that, but you said... After the first goat has been removed, the odds are not 1/2 (50:50) for the reason said above. But even if they were, why would you change your mind if the odds are equal? ← Because at first the odds were 1/3 for the car and 2/3 for the goats. So that's 66:33 to the goats, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Because at first the odds were 1/3 for the car and 2/3 for the goats. So that's 66:33 to the goats, ← I think we both know the right answer, but nither of us can explain it to each other. :) Lets leave it be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuse Posted June 24, 2005 Report Share Posted June 24, 2005 Right, I'll try and explain it in as plain a fashion as I can. Initially there are three doors to choose from, two of which are wrong, and one of which is right. Therefore there's a higher probability that you are going to pick a WRONG door (2/3 as opposed to 1/3). Now, having chosen, the presenter will reveal what's behind one of the other doors. Assuming you picked a wrong door initially, there's two doors left for him to open, one of which is right, the other is wrong. As the presenter KNOWS which door the right one is, he will open the one remaining WRONG door. This leaves the remaining door as the RIGHT one, which is different to the one you picked initially, meaning you should change your initial guess. As highlighted earlier, changing doesn't mean you will definitely get the right door, but your chances are increased over if you didn't change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Bleech Posted June 24, 2005 Report Share Posted June 24, 2005 At the end of the day... your gonna go home with a either a car or a goat, so you can't lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 24, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2005 At the end of the day... your gonna go home with a either a car or a goat, so you can't lose ← What would you want with the goat? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 24, 2005 Report Share Posted June 24, 2005 What would you want with the goat? :) ← Better than a sheep as it has horns you can hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Bleech Posted June 24, 2005 Report Share Posted June 24, 2005 (edited) What would you want with the goat? ← fresh milk and cheese... Edited June 24, 2005 by leedstrials Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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