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tomturd

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Posts posted by tomturd

  1. 24 minutes ago, Mark W said:

    Economists said that leaving would cause an immediate drop in the £ (now at it's lowest level in 30 years), and that stocks would drop massively (we lost £200bn off UK stocks in 1hr 40mins this morning).

    I think the point is they can't predict the long term future. Saying the pound will drop immediately after a leave vote is not a prediction, it's a certainty. In the days up to the vote, and right up until the 4th result came in the pound was rocketing.. so economists (or at least investors) managed to get that seriously wrong and that was just over the period of 2 or 3 days.

    We simply don't know what will happen in 2, 5, 10 or 20 years. It would be a total guess. So I agree with Dave, only time will tell.

    Anyways, right now I'm feeling fairly miffed. I was looking forward to a remain vote so I could stop stressing about it (very selfish of me). It doesn't feel good right now.

    • Like 1
  2. It's generally the "in" campaigners using fear tactics over here ("if we leave we'll be screwed" - to be fair that's all they really can say, they don't really have much scope to change the EU). They might be right though. The leave campaign can at least dream of better things.

  3. 11 minutes ago, Mark W said:

    True, but fundamentally that means that the overall vote is still 'right'?

    Yes.

    But a 55% win and a 80% win are different things.

    If you took an exam (pass rate: 50%) and got 55%, would you be equally as happy as if you got 80%? Or would you think "shit I have work to do".

    My point is I don't particularly like the idea of Cameron sitting back and thinking "yeah, easy win.. time to sit back and relax", when a good proportion of the vote may have been made by people who aren't particularly happy with the current situation but still voted in.

  4. 4 minutes ago, Mark W said:

    Nah, I didn't mean that at all - apologies if it came across that way!  That was a separate thing from seeing some posts on FB.

    Regarding the vote thing, David Cameron is still 'just a person in the UK' though, in the same way Farage, Johnson and so on are.  In that example you mentioned before, even if it was 'only' 30% who strongly believe they should be in, that's still 10% more than those who believe in voting out so it'd still be the right result overall?

    Ah, fair play so :) I can only imagine what FB has been like over the past couple of months.

    The overall result would be right, but I don't feel it would be representative of the overall "feeling" of the voters.

    To take the same example, if the 5 undecided split their vote equally between in and out (so 2.5 voted in, 2.5 voted out) then you get an overall "in" vote of.. *drum roll*

    55%

  5. 10 minutes ago, Mark W said:

    How do you mean, out of interest?

    The people going "I'm going to vote leave because of my gut instinct" is a little concerning.  This is a pretty major decision, so to not actually look into anything to do with it but then just vote on a whim isn't really great.

    Errr, not sure if you're suggesting I haven't actually looked into anything to do with it, if you are then quite simply: you're wrong ;)

    Say there were 10 people in the UK. 1 is David Cameron, 2 are in, 2 are out and 5 are undecided. If the undecided vote "in" (which I suspect they would when pushed) then you get a total vote of 80% "in", even though only 30% really strongly believe "in" is the right vote.

  6. 11 minutes ago, jeff costello said:

    fuuck, that's pretty evil. possibly worse than the stuff we get from the right-wingers here in austria. the rhetorics are usually pretty harsh too, but the posters are usually more feelgoody with some kind of borderline-retarded slogan that sounds good.

     

    Just so you don't go away thinking this is the official line of half of Britain, the actual leave campaign were quick to point out that this guy (Farage) isn't actually part of them. He, or UKIP (his party) made this poster off their own back.

    Leave voters are not necessarily UKIP supporters (but UKIP supporters are leave voters).

  7. 45 minutes ago, Mikee said:

    @tomturd Have you made a decision yet? I did some reading last night and made my mind up.

    Nope. Leaning towards in, but there's a big nagging part of me saying noooo.

    I will be equally happy if we stay or go. Lots of people in my situation will be saying that (1 in 6 are undecided, I think), and I think most will lean to "in" when pushed to make a decision. Maybe I should vote out to level the numbers for us lot a bit. I don't really like the fact that on paper my "in" vote (which is based on like: 30% in, 30% out, 40% oh crap I just need to choose one) has just as much weight as David Camerons "in" vote.

    What have you gone for?

    40 minutes ago, manuel said:

    Fairly disgusting.

    Yep. I wonder how many people would be more prepared to vote leave if the leave campaign wasn't associated with this stuff.

  8. 19 minutes ago, Mark W said:

    In what way do you mean Corbyn's the same deal?  He hasn't said much about this but for the most part he seems to be saying that both sides are shit, but Remain is the better option for us at the moment?  In fairness to Corbyn as well he's been pretty close to his ideals for the decades he's been in parliament and working as an MP, whereas Boris has been a lying, swindling fanny who seems happy to go with whatever will boost his profile most.  Corbyn's pretty much the antithesis of that with the way he didn't play up to all the media hype (which then seemed to turn them against him even more).  He even said he'd been quiet about the referendum because he knew what he said would be skewed, whereas whatever Boris comes up with - or the Leave camp as a whole - is repeated without much criticism.

    Regarding more referendums, in the event of a Remain vote it'll be a lot easier to sort out a new referendum than it would be for us to get back in the EU in the event of a Leave vote...

    EDIT:  For the record though I do agree that the majority of politicians are major dicks.

    I thought Corbyn was anti EU for a good while? I may be out of my depth here. Guardian to the rescue:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labour-eurosceptics-accuse-corbyn-reversing-position-eu-referendum

    They have both 'switched sides'.

    "Regarding more referendums, in the event of a Remain vote it'll be a lot easier to sort out a new referendum than it would be for us to get back in the EU in the event of a Leave vote..."

    If we leave then Germany and France are going to have to fill a £10bn hole (per year) or the EU will have to cut its budget, and the EU is already spending more than it has. I think they might be willing to take us back, but I can see why they would be reluctant to say the least. I don't think we'll be given the option to vote again given how clear it is that all the major parties really, really don't want us to go, and are probably very much regretting even asking the question.

    P.S still very much on the fence.

  9. 3 hours ago, Ali C said:

    Watched, quite boring (:p) but yes I understand and agree with his points.

    Some other videos that have stuck in my mind are:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsNXmfqQqOU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07c6n58

    (I don't have FB so god knows if these have been everywhere already, they probably have).

    I really don't think we'll be given another chance to vote leave if we vote remain, not for another 40 years anyway. They won't screw up like this again for a long time. I've just realised that's really important bit about my thinking.

    The EU is OK with me right now, but what will it be like in 20 or 40 or 60 years time? Is 2 or 4 years (as forecast) of not-ideal-situation is worth it in the long run?

    I agree with most of the things the bremainers (forgive me for using that word) say, and I have no problem with free movement of people, paying the £180m a week, obviously it's good for trade and so on.. but part of me just really doesn't like the direction it seems to be headed, i.e. bigger is better. It may be just about OK today - it has it's niggles - and "we can change it from the inside" (lol) with our "seat at the table" (lol) but I wonder what it will be like in 20 years from now.

    They're already mentioning an EU Tax ID. I don't want Europe to issue me a number. They can keep their numbers. It's that sort of thing.. the EU slowly imposing itself on more and more aspects of everyone's everyday life (rather than just a trade agreement) that doesn't sit right with me. 

    Still got 24 hrs to decide, plenty of time anyway.

     

    On a separate but sort of related note, and maybe a big factor into my slight disdain for the EU. You know if you set up a business, you don't need to register for VAT until you turn over ~80k (to make it easier for businesses to start up), right? Wrong. Not if you sell digital goods, like me. From day 1 you need to comply with EU Legislation - aimed for the likes to Amazon and Google to stop them selling ebooks in the country with the lowest VAT rate - that means: registering for VAT, recording 2 separate pieces of information about every customer to prove their location (geo located IP address and delivery address), charging the customer VAT at their local VAT rate (there are 20+ VAT rates which change over time), then every quarter reporting all of this back to HMRC so they can distribute the VAT you've collected back to their home countries. What if you plan to turn over £200 a month for your first year? Who is going to bother starting a business if they have to go through all this? Now that's bureaucracy and I've dealt with it first hand, twice. It sucks. And there's nothing the UK government can do about it. Oh, and I can almost guarantee Google and Amazon don't comply with this regulation, the only people it impacts are the little guys who aren't big enough to flout the rules.

    • Like 1
  10. 26 minutes ago, Mikee said:

    i'm still floating around the middle of the debate.

    Same.

    I can't fathom how the hardcore "bremainers" or "brexiters" can't see, or give a second thought to any possible benefits of voting the opposite way. It seems like it's a solid "I'm definitely voting in" or "I'm definitely voting out" without appearing to give the other option more than a nano-second of thought.

    I might flip a coin.

  11. I think about 150 people still log in each day.

    The top 10 or so threads in chit chat were started in 2012, one of them is from 2006, any new member glancing through the forum would think the place died 4 years ago. Plus, if you're not 'part of' those threads then it's not easy for new members to join in (it looks a bit cliquey), so when older members move on the new members don't come in to replace them.

    I reckon FB etc play a part, but mostly I think trials was 'booming' around 2006 and that's when it peaked, since then I suspect less (fewer?) riders are getting into the sport (trials isn't cool when your dad does it!). TF traffic peaked around 2006 and has steadily declined ever since.

    • Like 1
  12. 7 now.

    So the alarm unit has a cable with a phone jack on it, and it wants to be plugged into a BT phone socket? But you don't have a phone line so you want a pretend phone socket that actually has a sim card in it? I have never come across one of those...

    Does the unit itself not take a sim card? Sounds like it might be easier to return what you have and order one with a built in sim card reader. I have no idea why but I was looking at them on aliexpress the other day.

  13. 15 minutes ago, David said:

    I can completely agree on the looks side of things. I really like the way my mk1 looks! Which engine do you have? I have been tempted by the mk1 FR 1.9 TDI (150bhp). Exactly the same as I have now, just with a diesel engine as far as I can see. I have seen some 56 reg ones with Cupra R bodykits as standard too...

    Only problem is finding a low mileage example.

    I had a 1.9 fr mk1 (diesel, but you know that as its 1.9)

    Now I have a 2.0 fr mk3 (diesel again, not sure if there is a 2.0 petrol)

    Before I got the mk3 one I was looking at getting another mk1, like you I found it difficult to find one that had low milage and hadn't been meddled with (I like cars that aren't modified or mapped 'cos I'm boring like that). I guess I was too blinded by the prices and wanted a low milage decent example for same price as the high milage rubbish/modified examples were going for. I wasn't looking at the ones that were £500 or £1000 more than what I thought was the going rate, in hindsight maybe I should have looked at the more expensive ones.

    Can't say I've noticed that much difference in economy between all 3 of my last cars: mk1 leon, fabia vrs and a mk3 leon, they've all been 42 to 48 ish depending on how I'm driving, motorways, whether I've left the roofbars on etc.

  14. 1 hour ago, David said:

    Mk2 Leon 2.0 TDI FR? Might be a stretch at my budget and not super economical?

    I don't think my new leon* is much more economical than my old (mk1) leon.

    *I guess the quoted figures are when you're on the eco setting (which is rubbish), can't remember what I'm using but its either normal or sport.

    Personally I prefer the look of the mk1 to the mk2 (what did they do with the mk2?). A mk1 should be well within budget for a decent one and I reckon you could get 45mpg out of it if you drive sensibly.

  15. 23 minutes ago, weirdoku said:

    Question. How many of you put shoes in the washing machine? I personally think it's disgusting. Just got a new washing machine in this house I share with 7 other people, last one broke because the other idiots ram it full and overload it, which broke just before xmas and I was left without a washing machine for almost 2 weeks. Just walked into the kitchen and I hear some stones rattling noise from the washing machine, take a peep and there's a pair of f**king shoes in there.

    Just to add why I think it's disgusting. God knows what the f**k they've stepped on. Could be dog shit. Even if it's okay to put shoes in the washing machine, at least rinse off what ever shit is on the sole before putting them in.

    Some people put used nappies in them without a second thought so I wouldn't worry about some shoes!

    • Like 1
  16. So that eBay venture was short lived. It's flooded with competition, selling for next to nothing.

    Why do people do that?

    By selling for such a small amount, they corner the market but they make pretty much nothing on a sale, so what's the point?

    Go 10p or so less than competition and you'll still win, whilst actually making money...

    I searched ebay for 'dont say baby' a few days ago and saw quite a few other sellers back then, so I'm not sure if you were seeing different search results? This one has 650 sales: http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Dont-Say-Baby-Baby-Shower-Game-Dummy-Necklace-Charm-Girl-Boy-/121482862266?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_3&var=&hash=item1c48f15ebaso I guess they've been selling them for a while.

    What I dont understand is how the likes of babzmedia can sell something for less than the price of P&P alone.

  17. You could still do a 10 year fixed, but do it so you could pay it all off over 10 years but only if you overpay your full 10% per year.

    One thing I found out (it might be common knowledge) is that you can pay off lumps of your mortgage with no penalty when you're just on the standard rate. So if you had say, £10k you wanted to pay off, you can wait til the end of your deal, pay off 10k the day after (without penalty), then go back onto a new deal. So that's one thing to think about if you go for a 10 year fixed, you wont be able to pay off chunks of money until the very end.

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