Tyres

[Richie612]

Sometime in the near future I'll be looking at replacing my Maxxis Holy Rollers 24" by 2.4 for some new ones. Trouble is they seem rare as hens teeth at the moment! 

What's happening?

Can't be anything to do with this "Pandemic" as cycle shops are classed as essential businesses so obviously the suppliers must be too 

[Alex Dark]

There’s a pretty poor supply chain at the moment due to brexit and COVID combined. Loads of shops are struggling to get hold of or maintain stock levels. 

[Matt24.]

There has also been a lot more demand for cycling products in the last 12 months due to it being a form of exercise you have been allowed to do throughout. I know people running shops who have got huge waits now on stock that normally wouldn’t be an issue

[Daan]

Yep, sudden huge bike demand since covid. However, 24x2.4 Holy Rollers aplenty, e.g. Bike24 still has 26 of 'm in stock.

[Mark W]

12 hours ago, Richie612 said:

Can't be anything to do with this "Pandemic" as cycle shops are classed as essential businesses so obviously the suppliers must be too 

It's purely pandemic related as it happens - it's affected it in a few ways though, from delays in production, scarcity of raw materials and also delays in shipping.

Due to the boom last year, bike brands put in huge orders for 2021/22 models which has sucked up a lot of the availability of components, but also production time. Using tyres as an example, Maxxis only have a finite amount of production time so if you've got - say - Trek requesting a bajillion DHFs and DHRs to go on their new bikes, you're going to prioritise those over making some random stuff like 24" Holy Rollers. It isn't quite as clear cut as that, but it works along those lines. Despite this all kicking in a year ago, it's still having big impacts now. Pinkbike quoted someone saying that lead times for SRAM rear mechs to OE buyers were up to over 400 days now, whereas in pre-pandemic times they were 30-40.

So there's that production limitation side of things, coupled with backlogs on orders, but then there are also shortages in raw materials (in part due to the pandemic) that mean that even if factories have production time, they might not have materials needed to make parts. That also touches on shipping in some cases too. Vital had an interview with Joe Grainey from Santa Cruz where he mentioned they'd been held up with shipping bikes out because they couldn't even get bike boxes made (mail order has grown so much in general that cardboard is in short supply because it's being used by so many more people now).

Shipping has also been massively impacted. Shipping to the UK in particular has been hit pretty hard, but in general there's just a shortage of availability for shipping containers in Asia which means that bikes/parts can't be shipped out. It is possible to air ship bikes/parts, but there's a massive increase in cost associated with that. I can't remember if it was Commencal or Propain, but one of them mentioned that they were stuck with having to air ship some frames and larger components and that it was going to cause increased RRPs for the short term future.

Bike24 are lucky to have some - they're basically impossible to get from any supplier in the UK at the moment.

Anyway, this lack of availability is something that's going to continue on for probably most of this year. The only way I can really see out of it is if some of the bigger brands who've placed insane orders as a result of forecasting that the boom last year will sustain itself this year will realise that it won't/hasn't, and will cut some order quantities down, thus freeing up availability for others. I think we're probably too far down that road for this year though, so I expect it's going to be a rough year for a lot of people in the industry. My local shop have only been able to get a handful of bikes in from some brands, and even then they've been in random sizes/colours. They got them recently as part of the spring drop from those brands, with the next ones now looking like they'll be arriving some time in October... All the while, there are fewer aftermarket parts from the big brands for them to sell because so many of them are focussing on providing OE parts. Hopefully they'll be able to weather the storm, but I wouldn't want to be an independent bricks-and-mortar type shop at the moment.

[Richie612]

8 hours ago, Mark W said:

It's purely pandemic related as it happens - it's affected it in a few ways though, from delays in production, scarcity of raw materials and also delays in shipping.

Due to the boom last year, bike brands put in huge orders for 2021/22 models which has sucked up a lot of the availability of components, but also production time. Using tyres as an example, Maxxis only have a finite amount of production time so if you've got - say - Trek requesting a bajillion DHFs and DHRs to go on their new bikes, you're going to prioritise those over making some random stuff like 24" Holy Rollers. It isn't quite as clear cut as that, but it works along those lines. Despite this all kicking in a year ago, it's still having big impacts now. Pinkbike quoted someone saying that lead times for SRAM rear mechs to OE buyers were up to over 400 days now, whereas in pre-pandemic times they were 30-40.

So there's that production limitation side of things, coupled with backlogs on orders, but then there are also shortages in raw materials (in part due to the pandemic) that mean that even if factories have production time, they might not have materials needed to make parts. That also touches on shipping in some cases too. Vital had an interview with Joe Grainey from Santa Cruz where he mentioned they'd been held up with shipping bikes out because they couldn't even get bike boxes made (mail order has grown so much in general that cardboard is in short supply because it's being used by so many more people now).

Shipping has also been massively impacted. Shipping to the UK in particular has been hit pretty hard, but in general there's just a shortage of availability for shipping containers in Asia which means that bikes/parts can't be shipped out. It is possible to air ship bikes/parts, but there's a massive increase in cost associated with that. I can't remember if it was Commencal or Propain, but one of them mentioned that they were stuck with having to air ship some frames and larger components and that it was going to cause increased RRPs for the short term future.

Bike24 are lucky to have some - they're basically impossible to get from any supplier in the UK at the moment.

Anyway, this lack of availability is something that's going to continue on for probably most of this year. The only way I can really see out of it is if some of the bigger brands who've placed insane orders as a result of forecasting that the boom last year will sustain itself this year will realise that it won't/hasn't, and will cut some order quantities down, thus freeing up availability for others. I think we're probably too far down that road for this year though, so I expect it's going to be a rough year for a lot of people in the industry. My local shop have only been able to get a handful of bikes in from some brands, and even then they've been in random sizes/colours. They got them recently as part of the spring drop from those brands, with the next ones now looking like they'll be arriving some time in October... All the while, there are fewer aftermarket parts from the big brands for them to sell because so many of them are focussing on providing OE parts. Hopefully they'll be able to weather the storm, but I wouldn't want to be an independent bricks-and-mortar type shop at the moment.

Thanks for the detailed reply Mark. What you've said is probably spot on regarding lots of new cyclists during the pandemic. Although I think a lot of them will end up using Ebay after this has all come to an end guess to them being able to do other things once more.

A great time for cycle businesses selling bikes but it will come crashing down like the old saying what goes up must come down.

I'll head off to Bike24 and order a couple this evening, not being greedy and ordering the lot!

Brexit will have an impact too as I've seen on some foreign shops that they're unable to post to Great Britain but will post to other countries.

Bit petty I thought since all they'd have to do is add a little more import tax which I wouldn't mind at all compared to not getting the product.

Rich 

[Richie612]

Says on Bike24 that it's not shippaple to Great Britain (Excluding Northern Ireland) 

[Mark W]

3 minutes ago, Richie612 said:

Bit petty I thought since all they'd have to do is add a little more import tax which I wouldn't mind at all compared to not getting the product.

It's not quite that simple. The "deal" we got is dogshit, and makes life pretty hard for anyone exporting anything from the UK to the EU or vice versa that isn't 'of preferential origin' (i.e. made in the UK/EU). It means for bikes there's a fairly large amount of duty to pay (there's VAT, plus a 14%~ tariff), with a similar setup for parts at a lower tariff. The way the UK structured the deal seemingly means that companies that ship to the UK need to have a tax account with the UK as far as I'm aware. Basically, it's a clusterf**k, but Boris got to go off on one about saving fishing rights or some shit so the fact that his "frictionless trade" was a lie doesn't really matter. This article on the BBC site gives you a bit of a flavour.

I think once things have hopefully settled down more and things come to a more stable point that they'll open up sales again, but right now I don't really blame them. I know of a few companies who ship to the EU who have included preferential origin declarations with their shipments, but at some point those declarations appear to not be noted by the authorities and so VAT and customs charges apply, meaning bills appearing with their customers where they shouldn't have any at all.

[Mark W]

31 minutes ago, Richie612 said:

Although I think a lot of them will end up using Ebay after this has all come to an end guess to them being able to do other things once more.

A great time for cycle businesses selling bikes but it will come crashing down like the old saying what goes up must come down.

They already have - there's plenty of lightly used second hand bikes popping up on Marketplace.

It's been a good time for bike shops in terms of being able to sell bikes, but the sudden increase in demand and now total lack of stock is meaning that in effect it's already coming down. You only really need to look at how many bikes TartyBikes have in stock right now to get an idea of the difficulty of getting hold of stuff. It's definitely not for the want of trying!

[AdamR28]

1 hour ago, Richie612 said:

Bit petty I thought since all they'd have to do is add a little more import tax which I wouldn't mind at all compared to not getting the product.

Another 'hidden' Brexit fallout issue - to ship to the UK, sellers in Europe now have to be registered for VAT in the UK. Whoever thought that was a good idea needs a slap.

Hence most of the European shops now refusing to send to us.

Imagine if all EU countries were the same? That would mean 28 different VAT numbers for each company, and 28 sets of accounts. Ridiculous. 

Classic Boris all of this, show off the 'benefits' of 'what he's achieved for us' but sweep the shit under the carpet...

[Richie612]

22 minutes ago, Adam@TartyBikes said:

Another 'hidden' Brexit fallout issue - to ship to the UK, sellers in Europe now have to be registered for VAT in the UK. Whoever thought that was a good idea needs a slap.

Hence most of the European shops now refusing to send to us.

Imagine if all EU countries were the same? That would mean 28 different VAT numbers for each company, and 28 sets of accounts. Ridiculous. 

Classic Boris all of this, show off the 'benefits' of 'what he's achieved for us' but sweep the shit under the carpet...

Yes but look at the bright side, trawlers aren't allowed to fish within a certain distance from our shores . WOOOO HOOOO great result we're all saved thanks Boris! 

Bikester has 1 Holy Roller but there's no point buying just the one.

What do you use guys on your 24" wheels? Looks like an alternative might be needed until the Holy Roller starts to be produced again. 

It's all gone very wrong for this country hasn't it. 

[Richie612]

29 minutes ago, Adam@TartyBikes said:

Another 'hidden' Brexit fallout issue - to ship to the UK, sellers in Europe now have to be registered for VAT in the UK. Whoever thought that was a good idea needs a slap.

Hence most of the European shops now refusing to send to us.

Imagine if all EU countries were the same? That would mean 28 different VAT numbers for each company, and 28 sets of accounts. Ridiculous. 

Classic Boris all of this, show off the 'benefits' of 'what he's achieved for us' but sweep the shit under the carpet...

In response to the 28 different VAT numbers, I'm sure that wont be an issue soon as the world is slowly abolishing cash and moving to crypto currency. 

They're putting it down to covid as an excuse again . Basically another method of monitoring us further as cash transactions can't be traced.

It's begun already as Tesco won't allow cashback from the tills and only half the tills are able to take cash otherwise it's card.

Call me mad or a conspiracy theorist or whatever but this has been planned for years (along with this pandemic) and us wanting Brexit has really pissed on the Global Elites's  chips, that's why we're getting penalised.

Rich 

[Richie612]

Just found this, totally shocking on behalf of the "Rule Makers".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-55530721

[Mark W]

11 hours ago, Richie612 said:

What do you use guys on your 24" wheels? Looks like an alternative might be needed until the Holy Roller starts to be produced again. 

I found the Conti tyres to be better than Holy Rollers in every aspect. Certainly more expensive, but I found that they typically lasted longer, and performed better.

11 hours ago, Richie612 said:

In response to the 28 different VAT numbers, I'm sure that wont be an issue soon as the world is slowly abolishing cash and moving to crypto currency.

...

Call me mad or a conspiracy theorist or whatever but this has been planned for years (along with this pandemic) and us wanting Brexit has really pissed on the Global Elites's  chips, that's why we're getting penalised.

I doubt crypto will really be the sole answer to it though - the fact the cash isn't 'seen' by the border doesn't change the fact that goods going over a border will be. There's still a business associated with shipping the goods, and a recipient associated with receiving them, so the current issue still remains in that sense.

Regarding Brexit, there was a significant amount of money behind the Leave movement and a lot of wealthy people were pushing for it, so I don't really know how global elite-y the remain cause really was. The rich continue to get richer even while the majority suffer, even during something like this pandemic:

"The world’s billionaires “did extremely well” during the coronavirus pandemic, growing their already-huge fortunes to a record high of $10.2tn (£7.8tn).

A report by Swiss bank UBS found that billionaires increased their wealth by more than a quarter (27.5%) at the height of the crisis from April to July, just as millions of people around the world lost their jobs or were struggling to get by on government schemes."

They're better positioned to take advantage of any problems, and do so. Look at Leave-supporting James Dyson.  He was pushing for a no deal Brexit, but had the money to move his company HQ to Singapore to not be affected by any fall-out from it actually happening. That isn't the only example of a wealthy person pushing for no deal or for a 'hard' Brexit who has subsequently moved some of or all of their operations out of the UK. Nice if you can do it, but for a lot of smaller business owners that's not doable.

tl;dr: We're all f**ked, bikes and parts are going to be more expensive at least in the short term, Contis 4 lyf.

[Alex Dark]